(11-14-2021, 04:27 PM)galaxy Wrote: We are not in a 37-year turning.
2008-2020 was a bit of an ambiguous period, but now we are *definitely* in a 4T.
I guess it's a bit of a division like the 3T before the previous - you had a 2T/3T ambiguous period, then the war, then super-3T thereafter.
I don't see the structure of a 4T. It's been 20 years since 911 and 13 since the financial crisis, yet no regeneracy. The path to the end of this saeculum is no clearer today than it was when I first came to the T4T site in 2000. You would think the passage of a quarter of a saeculum to a point that should be close to the end of the 4T (1946+80 = 2026) we would have more clarity. Using an 80 year "ruler" today is equivalent to 1942. Applying it a second time gives us 1862, and again gives us 1782. We were in the midst of WW II and the Civil War in the first two of these comparisons, the conclusion of which would give the end of the 4Ts in 1946 and 1865. As for the third date the Revolutionary war was all but over.
Seeing it's been 20 years since 911, if we call that equivalent to the 1675 start of the Glorious 4T we are cycle-equivalent to 1695, at which point the Glorious Revolution was completed.
What I am getting at is for all previous 4Ts by this far past the trigger most of the crisis has already happened. This time no action has happened on the problems we faced in 2000 are all still with us. We were polarized and unable to act when Clinton was president, and we still are. The showdown between the two sides that resolved this problem in the past 4Ts has not happened. It has been delayed. Every time a potential crisis shows up: 911, 2008 panic, March 20202 crash, Jan 6 uprising elites find a way to paper over it and prevent any resolution from happening. These delaying actions, or kicking the can down the road, is the hallmark of the 3T. Examples from the 1990's include the Gulf War than wasn't ended (the war continued with Iraq invasion in 2013 and the 2014 ISIS war). Financial bubbles such as the one in 2000 when I first came to T4T are still with us 22 years later. Does anyone *really* think that throwing trillions of dollars of QE and deficit spending into financial markets won't eventually lead to currency debauchment? Does anyone think the growing divide between Red and Blue America can be bridged by speeches from a somnolent Joe Biden or a mendacious Trumpian figure?
Of course not, but that's all there is on offer as long as elites believe they can "manage the situation," keep kicking that can down the road as they have been doing for thirty years.ANd as long as they continue to do so, We Be 3T.