Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Apr-21 World View -- Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion
  
• Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine
  

****
**** Russia massing forces on Ukraine border, apparently planning imminent invasion
****


A trainload of tanks in southwestern Russia headed in the direction of the border with Ukraine earlier this week

The US armed forces European Command has raised its threat watch
assessement to its highest level -- "potential imminent crisis" --
because of growing reports of trains loaded with large amounts of
Russian military hardware, including aircraft, tanks and other heavy
armored vehicles, as well as heavy artillery and ground troops, headed
toward the border with Ukraine.

In 2014, Russia troops invaded Ukraine in support of Russian
separatists in eastern Ukraine. The purpose was to break off
the entire eastern portion of Ukraine and annex it to the Russian
Federation.

That didn't happen, but Russia also invaded Ukraine's Crimea peninsula
and annexed it and made it part of the Russian federation.
It's been assumed that Russia has wanted to complete the job of
annexing eastern Ukraine, and there are concerns the Russians plan
to do exactly that right now.

Russia may have decided to strike now because of the new Biden
administration in Washington. Last Thursday press conference by Biden
was undoubtedly analyzed closely by the Kremlin, and it was clear that
Biden has no idea what's going on. In addition, the world can see
that the Biden administration has completely lost control of its
southern border. The Kremlin analysts may have decided that it would
take a long time for the Biden administration to do anything, if the
Biden administration did anything, and that therefore they can invade
Ukraine with impunity. (See "28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion"
.)

****
**** Russia fires back at reports of a potential invasion of Ukraine
****

Russia's mealy-mouthed spokesman Dmitry Peskov issued a statement
saying that there's nothing to see here:

<QUOTE>"Russian Federation is moving its troops within its
territory, at its own discretion. Nobody should be concerned
about it. It poses no threat to anyone."<END QUOTE>

At this point, it's worthwhile to make a list of previous Russian lies
related to the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine:

• Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in
  Ukraine, and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that
  they were just "volunteers." That also turned out to be
  disinformation, as 80% of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America
  has an all-volunteer army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine
  are "volunteers" is like saying that America's troops in Afghanistan
  are "volunteers."
  
  
• Russia lied about invading east Ukraine when it had Russian
  troops in east Ukraine.
  
  
• In July 2014, the Russians in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia
  Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile
  that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, as was confirmed in
  2015 by a Dutch report following a lengthy investigation. Russia made
  one moronic claim after another, everything from the claim that MH17
  fell out of the sky by itself to a claim that the US shot down MH17 to
  embarrass Putin.
  
  
• Russia lied about invading Crimea, and then invaded Crimea.
  
  
• Putin said Russia had no intention of annexing Crimea, but then
  annexed Crimea a few days later and gave medals to the military
  officers who had invaded Crimea. Later, in a televised interview,
  Putin bragged that he had ordered the invasion and annexation of
  Crimea weeks before it occurred, and then lied about it.

According to US estimates, Russia has about 32,700 military personnel
in Crimea, some 28,000 personnel in "separatist" units in areas of
eastern Ukraine known collectively as the Donbass who have been
fighting the government in Kiev since 2015.

A member of the Generational Dynamics forum, Navigator, an expert on
military history, says:

<QUOTE>"You do not move this kind of stuff [tanks and armored
vehicles] around unless you mean to use it. Russia wants the
traditional Ukraine back. This is up to the line of
Odessa/Vinnetsa. They will probably allow Ukraine to remain in
what was once the Austro-Hungarian province of Galicia, centered
around the city of Lvov. Given Europe's current state, plus a
weak US administration, they know they will be able to get away
with this.

My bet is that Putin will go all in after Ukraine. After that he
will take a breather to get ready for the Baltics. Going after
the Baltics will require a NATO response. But my guess is that
they will appear so weak due to an almost non-existent response to
the Ukrainian campaign that the threat of this will not dissuade
him. He could also have intel that the Chinese will be going
after Taiwan at the same time he will be prepared to go into the
Baltics. This is my guess."<END QUOTE>

So now more Russian troops ("volunteers?") are headed for the border
with Ukraine, and Peskov says, "Nobody should be concerned about it."

However, the Pentagon is concerned about it, as evidenced by the rise
in the threat watch assessement to its highest level -- "potential
imminent crisis."

According to Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby: "We obviously don’t
want to see any more violations of Ukrainian territory. We’ve been
very clear about the threats that we see from Russia across domains
... we’re taking them very seriously."

Sources:

• EUCOM raises threat level for Ukraine as Russia builds up forces (Stars and Stripes, 31-Mar-2021)
  
• Today's D Brief: Ukraine, Russia escalate; Chinese fishing boats, unwanted; Small carrier, unneeded?; Lessons from Suez; And a bit more. (Defense One, 31-Mar-2021)
  
• Pentagon ‘watching’ as Russia steps up aggression in Eastern Europe (Politico, 31-Mar-2021)
  
• Russia Fires Back at U.S. Alarm Over Ukraine (US News, 1-Apr-2021)
  
• The West waits for Putin's next move as Russia-Ukraine tensions rise (CNBC, 1-Apr-2021)
  
• Russian Armor Floods Toward Border With Ukraine Amid Fears Of An 'Imminent Crisis' (The Drive, 31-Mar-2021)
  
• Ukraine plans Black Sea bases as US steps up presence in region (Stars and Stripes, 10-Feb-2021)
  
• As Russian Tanks Move Toward Ukraine, The Globe Braces For World War 3 (Economic Collapse Blog, 31-Mar-2021)

Related Articles:

• North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion (28-Mar-2021)
  
  
• Ukraine and Turkey develop closer relationship amid Russia's aggression (05-Dec-2018)
  
  
• Russia attacks Ukraine's navy and blockades Ukraine's ports at Kerch Strait (26-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia (12-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion (19-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Crimean Tatars and Ukraine seek help from Sunni Muslim countries (25-Apr-2014)
  
  
• Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 Holodomor famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Donbas,
European Command, EUCOM, Crimea, Dmitry Peskov,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Buk 9M38 missile,
John Kirby

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