11-23-2020, 03:17 PM
(11-19-2020, 03:33 PM)LTsmith Wrote: Hello, long time lurker, first time poster here.
Been thinking a lot lately about how to prepare for 1) the coming Crisis climax, and 2) the coming High. In The Fourth Turning, S&H make reference to acting or behaving "pre-seasonally" -- that is, in a way that reflects or demands the nature or needs of the upcoming turning. (I think I've got that term right; please correct if I'm wrong. Too lazy to check the book.) Indeed, this is part of what is needed to bring it on. And it's not necessarily a deliberate choice in all cases; many typical members of a generation act this way based purely on instinct.
I am a 1989 Millennial in Canada and I'm more or less convinced that a cold civil war fueled by digital disinformation is coming south of the border within the next couple of years.
I don't have to do much, personally, to prepare for an outright civil American conflict up here in my snowy neck of the woods. My countryfolk have the privilege of being influenced by American culture but not directly impacted by its fallout. Yes, we have our share of problems as well, but not nearly at the same intensity.
What I *would* like to prepare for, however, is the High. Even before reading S&H, I've always been civic-minded. I would like to position myself and my family to take the best advantage of and contribute positively toward the coming High. I look forward to being part of the new GI Generation, fighting for and subsequently benefiting from massive civic improvements. I'm sick of following and ready to lead.
I predict (and hope) that the Green New Deal in the US will be the cornerstone of the High. This carries some obvious practical implications (say goodbye to oil and gas), but I'm curious if anyone has any thoughts on other aspects of the coming High that should be expected, and how Millennials can position themselves to come out the tail end of the Crisis ready to rebuild society.
One example of what I'm talking about related to the Green New Deal would be the increased reliance on electricity (for car charging, home heating, and so on), and therefore the increased pressure on existing electric grid infrastructure. Some of the grid infrastructure we rely on today is nearing a century old, and occasional power outages simply will not be acceptable anymore. Is a complete North American electric grid re-construction effort undertaken over many years and creating millions of public sector construction jobs (in addition to all the green energy generation jobs) something we can expect? Just one thought.
Another thought that is less practical and more social is how to better unite as a culture and as a generation. I'm becoming exhausted at anything that is even remotely divisive or even corrective. Even at work, when colleagues disagree about the best approach to do something and it basically winds up never getting done or getting done in a half-assed way to be a "compromise"... I feel like one person or a small team should just do the job, get it done, and so what if it's not perfect? At least it would've accomplished something. We can improve it as we go in real time, in response to real demand, rather than trying to make something perfect from the get-go and ultimately self-sabotaging. I can't wait until I am able to make more executive decisions at work. Especially when in the simplest terms, everyone has the same goals -- it's only the minutiae that people squabble over.
I'm curious to hear anyone else's thoughts on acting pre-seasonally or preparing for the end of a Crisis and beginning of a High. Thanks!
Great post! It is an exemplary millennial sentiment lol. Prophet gen prioritizes "principles" and ends up just forcing more and more conflict. Hero gen does the opposite and stand for "community" , but in doing so compromises too much on principles and progress. So I 100% agree that were going to see a LOT of stuff getting done soon as we break the Booomer stranglehold on society and gridlock.
I would actually argue that the High may already have started, my instinct is that Trump is the core manifestation of the crisis and if he never reasserts real power we'll have made it through the turning (see my post below this one saying election day was the 4T end). Juries still out as there is tons of ways the crisis hasn't even begun to play out yet, but I'm trying to be optimistic.
Green new deal is still too vague, if the Democrats can win in Georgia and push hard over the next two years we can theoretically lock in the new "party era" and basically end the modern republican party.
You did make me think though of a topic I don't think I've brought to the boards here: tech cycles. It seems clear that one of the "overlays" to the generational cycles, in addition to the interest rate cycles and the party era cycles, is a tech cycle (I heavily correlate this to the interest rate phenomena).
One innovation that drives progress through an entire saeculum.
American Saeculum I: Cotton Gin
American Saeculum 2 (1865-1945): Steam engine, leading us to world war, cars and airplanes.
American Saeculum 3 (1945-Present): Microchip leading us to social media, internet.
As for the next one? I'm with you and think that it will be energy related. A major breakthrough in energy will likely come as we are solving for climate change, and "infinite" energy would remake society just as much as any of the other innovations.