09-05-2020, 04:10 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2020, 10:12 PM by Eric the Green.)
The narrowest possible Biden win:
(the blue states here currently are the states with the highest poll-average percentage in favor of Biden)
![[Image: P7KjQ]](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/P7KjQ)
Supposing this situation arises, if Nebraska District 2 votes for Trump, the electoral vote will be tied.
First of all, then the issue of faithless electors may arise. 8 states permit faithless electors that may belong to Biden: TX GA PA NH (if Biden wins those states, only NH in this scenario) plus NY NJ RI IL (likely Biden states).
11 states prohibit faithless electors, but without any penalty or change in the vote:
WI OH FL (if Biden carries these, only WI in this scenario) plus VA MD DE CT MA VT HI OR (likely Biden states).
If even one of these delegates switches to Trump (with no contrary switch) Trump wins.
https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws
If the electoral vote is still tied, the House votes by state. That gives the advantage to Trump. Currently 26 states have majority Republican delegations, 23 Democratic, and 1 tie.
PA is tied, with one Republican departing. If this seat switches to Democratic in the 2020 election, that makes 24 Democratic states.
Florida is +1 Republican (14-13) with 3 departing Republican members. If one of these seats switches in the 2020 election, the state becomes Democratic and the House vote is tied. Someone in any state would have to break with their party and vote to break the tie.
Wisconsin has a 5-3 Republican majority, with one departing Republican member. This and one other seat would have to switch in the 2020 elections in this gerrymandered state in order for the Democrats to win the House vote.
Texas has 22-15 Republican, with 7 departing Republican members. If 4 of them switch parties in the 2020 election in this gerrymandered state, the Democrats would get another delegation.
Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona have precarious Democratic majorities.
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states
(the blue states here currently are the states with the highest poll-average percentage in favor of Biden)
Supposing this situation arises, if Nebraska District 2 votes for Trump, the electoral vote will be tied.
First of all, then the issue of faithless electors may arise. 8 states permit faithless electors that may belong to Biden: TX GA PA NH (if Biden wins those states, only NH in this scenario) plus NY NJ RI IL (likely Biden states).
11 states prohibit faithless electors, but without any penalty or change in the vote:
WI OH FL (if Biden carries these, only WI in this scenario) plus VA MD DE CT MA VT HI OR (likely Biden states).
If even one of these delegates switches to Trump (with no contrary switch) Trump wins.
https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_elector_state_laws
If the electoral vote is still tied, the House votes by state. That gives the advantage to Trump. Currently 26 states have majority Republican delegations, 23 Democratic, and 1 tie.
PA is tied, with one Republican departing. If this seat switches to Democratic in the 2020 election, that makes 24 Democratic states.
Florida is +1 Republican (14-13) with 3 departing Republican members. If one of these seats switches in the 2020 election, the state becomes Democratic and the House vote is tied. Someone in any state would have to break with their party and vote to break the tie.
Wisconsin has a 5-3 Republican majority, with one departing Republican member. This and one other seat would have to switch in the 2020 elections in this gerrymandered state in order for the Democrats to win the House vote.
Texas has 22-15 Republican, with 7 departing Republican members. If 4 of them switch parties in the 2020 election in this gerrymandered state, the Democrats would get another delegation.
Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona have precarious Democratic majorities.
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/states