08-15-2020, 02:31 AM
(08-13-2020, 07:06 PM)RadianMay Wrote: The nomination of Harris makes me a lot more pessimistic of this 4T. It feels like the establishment yet again jabbing the progressives in the stomachs, spreading the fear that the democrats will lose to Trump again this year. I again have the increasing dread that this crisis's trigger didn't really trigger real change, and our old ways will continue for longer than sustainable.
Trump compels us to return to what best resembles tried-and-true. We shall see if we get that... and if. should we get that, it pans out.
Quote:I'd agree that COVID and BLM are the key early crisis issues, but I think this crisis will eventually escalate into a more global problem with America at the centre. It does appear to me that the China tensions are only going to get worse going forward, with Xi acting more like a cowardly Hitler day after day. People think that Trump will be able to make the China relations irreparably bad before he leaves office in November, and to me it does make sense following it week by week. Although the democrats aren't really talking about it much, reading and watching conservative media, people do genuinely think that China is an existential threat to America. Trump might just make this a self fulfilling prophecy before he leaves office to "justify" his next term.
Black Lives Matter is not the issue; cops who get trigger-happy around blacks has been a festering issue. Black Lives Matter is a possible solution. We are also discovering that real community in America may dictate that Confederate symbolism goes down this time because it hurts black people and does little for whites. Trump has given unwitting support for racist cliques who have offended most of us.
Get this straight: Xi is not another Hitler. Hitler tried to get people of German origin in other countries to become collaborators in the spread of Nazi influence and power. Do you see Xi doing much the same with the far-larger and more widespread Chinese diaspora? I have far more concern about the Korean peninsula that has opposing sides nearly diametrically opposite between insanity and realism. South Korea does a far better job of kissing up to the People's Republic of China than does North Korea. War is most likely when an amoral leader sees advantages that he can take advantage in an indefensible opponent (just think of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait).
Assuming that Trump is running out of time due to an impending defeat, he is in no position to provoke conflict with the People's Republic of China. Xi knows how to play the waiting game about as well as Angela Merkel.
Quote:If a war does break out, I do think it will be with China, and I do think that this is much more likely than a civil war in America. Civil war just doesn't seem likely at all, at most I'd think that we'll have some more ideological fragmentation. I'm not sure what will be America's response if China were to attack the Taiwanese mainland. It probably would never be on the caliber of Pearl Harbor, but it very much could be a trigger for a war or proxy war.
The most likely war involving China would be the consequence of one of China's near-neighbors doing bad things to the Chinese minority in that country.
My long-term prediction has been that the People's Republic of China would try to reunify Taiwan into China with another "one nation/two systems" approach. There are problems to this. First of all, the People's Republic is nominally a multi-party system (although minor parties are effectively marginalized). One of those is a faction of the Guomindang Party that split from Chiang Kai Shek in the 1930's and joined the Communist-dominated coalition. The Guomindang in Taiwan is no longer the authoritarian party tht brought about its own demise in China through corruption and incompetence. Obviously a reunification of China is far easier if China as a whole is democratic, which the People's Republic definitely is not. Second, Xi has come close to making a mockery of the "one country, two systems" approach in Hong Kong, which should make anyone in Taiwan skittish.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.