I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[David Horn]

(07-20-2020, 11:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-20-2020, 05:04 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Bush certainly did his part to be disjunctive, but Democrats did not use the victories Bush's failure gave them to create a dispensation that would withstand the very next election. Now Trump is doing his damnedest to be a good disjunctive president and hand the Democrats the tools they need to try again.  Will they succeed--by managing to hang on to Congress in 2022, or fail like they did in 2010?

But even then, its not definitive. Bush won in 2000 AND in 2002 and 2004--just like FDR. It looked like he was well on his way to being like T Roosevelt, making 2000 a critical election, and setting his party up to continue the Reagan dispensation for another cycle. This is what Karl Rove thought.  Then came 2006 and 2008 and clearly that did not happen.  So this year is our third try at producing some sort of critical election/political shift (i.e. what is supposed to happen politically in a 4T but hasn't so far).

Well, almost Trump is doing his damnedest.  He hasn't actually gone to New York and started shooting people.  

But I expect the coronavirus was the trigger that pushes the transformation of values which also creates the critical election.  Before the trigger, there was nothing that forced people to commit to the change.

This year is a unique case of having multiple crises both coexisting and fully entangled: pandemic, race, class, economics and climate.  If this isn't an adequately scary proposition to create real change momentum, it's unlikely we will achieve it in the near future.  That leaves us looking at a 2T that should make the last one look like elementary school recess.

Note: I had to correct spelling that was not mine, because my spell checker got hung on a single word and wouldn't let me ignore it. Sorry.