Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[Eric the Green]

(10-08-2019, 11:24 AM)tg63 Wrote:

(10-07-2019, 04:56 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Somebody fills the state polling data. There are no huge surprises here except for Alaska and Kansas.

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...d&map=true

The Civiqs tracking poll seems way more realistic than Morning Consult. Some key states (updated Oct 5):

Nationally, Trump's approval is 42/55.

I have seen relatively few recent statewide polls (VA, WI, OH) newer than these. It's good for some fill-ins and updates 

Others to fill in 
AL  57-40
AS  47-50
AR 62-35
CA 28-70
CT 34-62
DE 40-57
DC (don't be stupid, probably 15-83 at best for Trump)
HI 25-72
ID 59-38
IL 34-64
IN 52-45
KY 61-35
LA 53-44
MD 28-68
MA 24-73
MS 53-44
MO 52-44
MT 51-45
NJ 36-61
NM 40-56
ND 65-32
NE 54-43
OK 62-34
OR 33-64
RI 33-64
SC 49-47
SD 58-39 
TN 55-42
UT 49-45
VT 26-71
WA 32-65
WV 67-30
WY 65-31






Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54% 
55% or higher

Can anybody suggest to me why Trump can win if his disapproval numbers are 50% or higher in so many states barring miracles, fraud, or force?

Sure ...  a few reasons ... mathematically speaking, if the margin of error takes him below 50% in several of these, well, that would matter. Also, there are >12 months to go ... lots can change between now & then. Also, the challenger hasn't been finalized, people polled may have a different position when it goes from a theoretical question to a practical one. This is just off the top of my head.

These reasons are true, but the major factors are the electoral college and voter suppression. Many voters were taken off the rolls or had barriers erected against them in 2016 in swing states. And these states are close, while the margin against Trump is greater in the populous blue states than the margin favoring Trump is in the smaller red states. Plus a third party candidate can take a small percentage, and foreigners can do their best to interfere by posting fake news. All this means that Trump can win with 46% of the vote.