Ohio: Emerson, Sep. 29-Oct. 2, 837 RV
Trump approval: 43/51
Impeachment support: 47/43
Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48
Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49
This is the first statewide poll that I have seen taken fully after the disclosure of the President's attempt to have another country dig up or fabricate derogatory material on a family member of a likely rival. And take a look at impeachment support... Notice also that matchups are beginning to appear with Democrats against VP Mike Pence. Pence does not do significantly better than Trump in the event that... you know.
The character of polling is changing.
Not since at least 1988 has a Republican nominee been in position in which to win the Presidency without winning Ohio... Ohio could have been the difference between Gore and Dubya or Kerry and Dubya, and Trump was not going to win any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin without also winning Ohio.
That Republicans got the majority of the House vote in Ohio in 2018 may now be irrelevant. Unless something changes drastically, Trump will lose Ohio in 2020. The map does not change.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;6&AK=0;3;4&AZ=1;11;5&AR=0;6;6&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=1;29;2&GA=1;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;7&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;6&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=2;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;6;2&NH=1;4;7&NJ=0;14;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=1;15;2&ND=2;3;5&OH=1;18;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=1;20;7&RI=0;4;6&SC=2;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=1;38;5&UT=3;6;2&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=2;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;7&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Trump approval:
40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher
Trump approval: 43/51
Impeachment support: 47/43
Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 53, Trump 47
Warren 52, Trump 48
Biden 54, Pence 46
Warren 51, Pence 49
Sanders 51, Pence 49
This is the first statewide poll that I have seen taken fully after the disclosure of the President's attempt to have another country dig up or fabricate derogatory material on a family member of a likely rival. And take a look at impeachment support... Notice also that matchups are beginning to appear with Democrats against VP Mike Pence. Pence does not do significantly better than Trump in the event that... you know.
The character of polling is changing.
Not since at least 1988 has a Republican nominee been in position in which to win the Presidency without winning Ohio... Ohio could have been the difference between Gore and Dubya or Kerry and Dubya, and Trump was not going to win any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin without also winning Ohio.
That Republicans got the majority of the House vote in Ohio in 2018 may now be irrelevant. Unless something changes drastically, Trump will lose Ohio in 2020. The map does not change.
Trump approval:
40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative
Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.
tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.