Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Quote:Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove

Michigan: 39%-59%

Ohio: 45%-54%

Pennsylvania: 44%-56%

Wisconsin: 42%-58%

More details, including tables, crosstabs, and methodological information, for all five of these polls are available at:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...ll-Indiana

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...l-Michigan

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...-poll-Ohio

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...nnsylvania

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/n...-Wisconsin

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org...rost-belt/

Take a look at the poll from Indiana. Trump disapproval is now over 50% in what is typically one of the toughest states for a Democrat to win. How tough? It has gone only twice for a Democratic nominee for President since 1936. It could be that the fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis that used to be reliably Republican are no longer so reliably Republican (see also a pattern emerging in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas). It could also be that rural voters are beginning to see the harm from the trade war and the huge tax increase known as tariffs.

Here's how I rate the Frost Belt states, the states and DC mostly north of the Potomac and Ohio rivers and Iowa, Minnesota, and eastern Nebraska for the Presidential election:

LEAN R NE-01, NE at large
TOSS-UP IN, ME-02, NE-02
TILT D NH, OH
LEAN D ME-AL, PA
SOLID D about everything else
SUPER-SOLID D DC MA MD NY









55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise
(Note: I have seen no poll asking that question for several weeks).




100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.