Has the regeneracy arrived?

[SomeGuy]

(01-24-2017, 01:11 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(01-24-2017, 12:28 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Personally, I would rather the US abandon its efforts at hegemony, cut what deals it needs to preserve its most important geopolitical interests, maintain a military for defensive purposes only, and focus on rebuilding its infrastructure and industry, but I am not sure that there is enough political support for all of that in Congress.  We may have to muddle through a while longer.

So do I.  And if we get that then your view of how this 4T plays out will come true.  But your basic M&T cycle calls for the macrodecision phase to end around 2050, so this would be early.

Going by the vanilla theories on both, the M & T macrodecisions straddled two S & H turnings, generally the 4T into the 1st.  The last macrodecision went from the early 3T to the end of the 4th.

If we go by leading sectors generating outsized growth, East Asia (starting in Japan and ending in China) looks like the site of the next hegemon, and it is not inconceivable that a conflict in East Asia could, say, have a 4T phase, and then a period of lesser conflicts during the 1T as the victor consolidates their status, ending in the 2040s.  

With the 19th K-wave set to end in the 2020-2030 timeframe, and the next K-wave to ramp up after that, the 20th k-wave may in fact have its roots in developments made during the early part of said macrodecision phase.  This would be consistent with previous phases, with the 18th k-wave starting at the beginning of the 20th century macrodecision period and reaching the high growth period at its end, or an even closer fit with the 16th 17th k-wave transition at the turn of the 19th century with the Revolutionary/Napoleonic wars.